The Swamp Page 5

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Remember the crux of this issue.  The theory has been falsified and without correlation you cannot have causation.

Introduction

We arrived on this website believing we were rational and used logic and facts and could easily identify anyone who was going to mislead us with emotion, illogical arguments, and fallacies. Some would have had this view shaken after reading the previous pages. Hopefully, we have refreshed our critical thinking skills and are well prepare to take this test.

On this page there will be an outline of a swamp issue that claims to prove “Global warming is real and it is accelerating” – whatever that means. Because The Crux has taught us that the theory has been falsified and that without correlation there can be no causation, we know with certainty that this is not correct. Our task is to critically examine this swamp issue and find its errors.

Our Test

Background.

To understand this “Swamp Issue”, which is part of the “Missing Heat” genre of swamp issues, some background is needed.

On Xmas eve 2012, the last of the six Green organisations measuring average global temperatures publicly agreed that global warming had stopped, for 17-23 years (depending on which organisation’s data was used). On Xmas eve 2019, this hiatus in warming has lasted for 24-30 years

The UN’s IPCC which has a monopoly on providing global warming information to all governments, had deliberately hid the hiatus in warming for 7-8 years.  They realised that this hiatus would falsify the Greens’ theory and undermine the whole campaign.  To keep the campaign alive, they had to overcome this significant damage. 

As soon as the hiatus in warming was made public, the Climate Action Group (CAG) released a three prong strategy to be implemented by 300 Green organisations world-wide.  This was;

1. Do not believe the Green IPCC scientists – continue to produce work showing temperatures are still rising rapidly,
2. Label all natural climate changes and events as man-made and couch the reporting in alarming terms, and
3. Move away from the global temperatures and the hiatus, and focus on temperature rises anywhere else.

            The “Missing Heat is in the Oceans” campaign embodies all three prongs of this strategy.  This is a wonderful area to start a new scare campaign because we have no data on average temperatures within the planet, and only average temperatures for half the oceans since 2004.  Consequently, “guesstimating” or fabricating data can be used with near impunity to support any wild assertions.

So here is the article for us to test our skills.

The Article

The truncated article is below in italics.

What has global warming done since 1998?

What the science says…

The myth of no warming since 1998 was based on the satellite record estimates of the temperature of the atmosphere.  However, even that argument is no longer accurate. The satellites show warming since 1998 too.

To claim global warming stopped in 1998 also overlooks a simple physical reality – the land and atmosphere are just a small fraction of the Earth’s climate (albeit the part we inhabit). 

The entire planet is accumulating heat due to an energy imbalance. The atmosphere is warming. Oceans are accumulating energy. Land absorbs energy and ice absorbs heat to melt.

To get the full picture on global warming, you need to view the Earth’s entire heat content. More than 90% of global warming goes into the oceans, while less than 3% goes into increasing the atmospheric and surface air temperatures. Nuccitelli et.al. (2012) showed that the Earth has continued to heat up since 1998.

The article went on to explain that the oceans were heating up nine time faster than the land (i.e. Not including the atmosphere and ice).

Some Answers

The full article was noteworthy for both the number of and nuances in the deceptions. However, to make the article exceptional, a major deception was well hidden.

Because the detailed criticism of all deceptions can be long, we will discuss the major well–hidden deception here. More details of the other deceptions are in Reading 3.5.1 below.

Major Deception

Note:  This is a swamp issue that cannot un-falsify the theory, nor re-write history to show that CO2 concentrations and global temperatures move in ‘lockstep’.

By telling us that the oceans are heating up nine times faster than the land, we might expect to see temperatures being used.  Instead we are given a “massive figure” of 10 to the power of 22 joules of heat content.

Apparently massive figure means massive rise in temperature.  In reality we find that the temperature rise in the oceans, over this fifty year period, is four tenths of one degree.

For the change in land temperatures to be nine times smaller than in the oceans, this land temperature figure must be measured in thousandth of a degree before rounding to a measure of hundredths of one degree.

The change in heat (measured in joules) is calculated by multiplying the specific heat index by the mass of the land or oceans times the change in temperatures.  Since the specific heat index and the mass of land or oceans can be considered constants, we are only dealing with a change in temperatures (Note: Once again why use big numbers rather than the temperature).

Measuring Average Ocean Temperatures

Before the Argo system became operational in 2004, we knew next to nothing about the ocean temperatures.  Although only covering the top half of the ocean, the Argo buoys now give us comprehensive information about the top 2,000 metres of the oceans.

For example, the graph’s data from 1961-2004 is based on sparse and sporadically collected information.  It was this lack of data that led to the creation of the Argo System.

Before Argo data became available, one analysis of Atlantic currents relied on just five research temperature measurements spread over forty years – hardly enhancing confidence in their conclusions.

In contrast, the Argo system now has approximately 4,000 buoys spread over all the oceans that allows continuous monitoring of the temperature, salinity, and velocity of the upper ocean, with all data being relayed to satellites, and made publicly available within hours after collection.

In conclusion, we have a fairly good grasp of what the average ocean temperature might be, although still using some educated guesses of temperatures of the bottom half of the oceans.

Measuring Average Land Temperatures

In contrast with ocean temperatures, we have no measurements of the average temperature of the land/solid planet – just educated guesses. 

To get just one reading of an average land temperature, we would need to drill a hole six thousand kilometres deep and take temperature measurements all the way down this hole.  The deepest hole ever drilled is less than 30 kilometres and did not come close to the molten core.

If you were to have the same coverage as the Argo buoys, we would need six thousand of these very deep holes.

The educated “scientific” guesses of the temperature of the molten core ranges from 3,000-7,000 degrees Celsius.

We now see the major deception. 

If the science has been represented accurately, some scientists are trying to tell us that they have been measuring or guessing the average temperature of the land for the past fifty years and have measured a slight rise in temperature to an accuracy of a thousandths of one degree.

We can confidently say that such a claim is rubbish.

Reading 3.5.1 shows you many of the other deceptions in this so called rigorous “Scientific” study.

Conclusion Page 5

Apart from improving our critical thinking skills by completing this test, there are two other benefits.

The Greens produced a one page article described as “robust science”. To comprehensively critique it, we needed 11pages (i.e. Reading 3.5.1). This is a lot of effort that achieves little. It doesn’t matter who is right or wrong with this article – the crux remains untouched. So all this effort is being expended to show a Green that the article is wrong. Even if he accepts that, he will move on and, with little effort, will present us with another swamp issue. So we are doing all the work and he is never going near the crux of the issue.

Second, on realising this, we should always rapidly move the conversation to the crux of the issue. Once people understand the crux, they will realise the futility in discussing swamp issues. This of course assumes some rationality is still left in our society.

A Moment for Reflection

Summary of “The Swamp” Pages

If we were rational and concerned about Man-made catastrophic global warming, we only needed to read the single page in “The Crux” to be convinced that there was no problem. There is nothing in the rest of the website, especially “The Swamp” pages, that challenges the scientific and logical arguments that there is no problem.

If we are concerned about the growing irrationality in the Western World, there are hundreds of swamp issues that display such irrationality. These issues are deliberately created to distract us from going anywhere near the crux of the issue – and have achieve that goal.

After refreshing our critical thinking skills and improving our knowledge about this issue, the pages in “The Swamp” hopefully have helped us to identify where and how we are being misled and deceived.

This section might convince most readers that there is growing irrationality in our society. This would be the first step in the much bigger task of trying to reverse this trend.

Finally, while reading the swamp pages, it has become clear that there are numerous organisations and individuals who will not hesitate to lie, deceive and mislead us on this and other issues. If we remain irrational and not able to use our critical thinking skills, more people and organisations will join this list as we are ‘ripe’ to be misled. Collectively, this trend does much harm to our societies.

One final piece of advice when a swamp issue is brought up in a conversation. See Reading 3.5.2

Where to Now?

With the growing irrationality within Western countries, the bulk of the citizens and leaders were convinced that Man was causing catastrophic global warming.

When none of the catastrophic predictions eventuated by the year 2000, they were then encouraged to ignore the failures and view any natural change as the new man-made catastrophic change.

So were our leaders rational when they were asked to act? We will see in the next part of the website – “Our Response”.

Post Script – with a smile

For those who do not believe you can drown investigating all those swamp issues that claim to prove that “Global Warming is real”, Reading 3.5.3 has a small list of Swamp Issues – we wish you luck

For those who wish to see how easy it is to “kill” swamp issues, Reading 3.5.4 gives you multiple short videos by Heller.